tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 492 at 18:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 492 Southwest PWM 18:00 BNA 19:36 11% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:18 → IAD 07:19UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:27 → BNA 09:22UA 1366 5h 04m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:28 → PHL 07:16AA 2951 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 08:58 → BNA 10:13AA 1283 5h 45m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 6h 23m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:30 → PHL 09:27AA 1536 3h 54m Philadelphia PHL 13:21 → BNA 14:30AA 804 8h 00m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:16 → CLT 09:46AA 2966 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 13:24 → BNA 14:03AA 2409 7h 47m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:55 → ORD 08:58AA 4499 · flown by Republic 2h 15m Chicago ORD 11:13 → BNA 12:56AA 2362 7h 01m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426 1h 21m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 5h 00m 96% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON