Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2063 PWM 09:20 → BWI 11:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 146 PWM 13:07 → BWI 14:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2063 Southwest	PWM 09:20	BWI 11:17	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3548 Southwest	PWM 05:40	BWI 07:38	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4393 Southwest	PWM 10:32	BWI 12:15	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3335 Southwest	PWM 05:43	BWI 07:25	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 920 Southwest	PWM 14:52	BWI 16:36	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1098 Southwest	PWM 12:55	BWI 14:53	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1579 Southwest	PWM 16:05	BWI 18:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 146 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 13:07	BWI 14:39	9%	2%	0.5%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON