Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2712 PWM 05:58 → DCA 08:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1423 PWM 16:46 → DCA 18:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2712 American Flight history →	PWM 05:58	DCA 08:02	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2884 American Flight history →	PWM 05:57	DCA 08:03	6%	3%	0.7%	62%
OH 5202 PSA	PWM 10:59	DCA 12:57	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PWM 12:08	DCA 14:02	13%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	PWM 16:46	DCA 18:47	16%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON