tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Dulles, leaving 05:19, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 287 United Flight history → PWM 15:37 DEN 18:16 12% 3% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:19 → IAD 07:22UA 3522 · flown by Republic 2h 51m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 8h 46m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:30 → PHL 09:27AA 1536 3h 34m Philadelphia PHL 13:01 → DEN 15:12AA 2082 9h 42m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:31 → PHL 07:20AA 2951 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 08:47 → DEN 11:57AA 1313 8h 26m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746 8h 48m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:16 → CLT 09:46AA 2966 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 13:09 → DEN 14:39AA 696 9h 23m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 7h 14m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 96% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 13:07 → BWI 14:39WN 146 2h 16m Baltimore BWI 16:55 → DEN 18:55WN 939 7h 48m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PWM 14:59 → JFK 16:32DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m New York JFK 17:34 → DEN 19:42DL 424 6h 43m 73% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON