Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 3301 American Flight history →	PWM 08:52	DFW 11:45	7%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PWM 05:37 → PHL 07:27AA 2951	3h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 10:55 → DFW 13:16AA 3326	8h 39m	100%	90%
American Details →	PWM 07:30 → PHL 09:27AA 1536	3h 25m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	9h 01m	100%	90%
American Details →	PWM 06:32 → ORD 08:32AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DFW 13:26AA 2537	7h 54m	97%	90%
American Details →	PWM 05:57 → DCA 08:03AA 2884	3h 59m Washington	DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623	9h 29m	100%	90%
American Details →	PWM 12:08 → DCA 14:02AA 5528 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	8h 33m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 44m	99%	88%
American Details →	PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	3h 42m Philadelphia	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	9h 13m	100%	88%
American Details →	PWM 06:07 → DCA 08:14AA 2712	1h 45m Washington	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:09AA 795	7h 02m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON