Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3537 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3537 PWM 08:14 → EWR 09:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4600 PWM 18:49 → EWR 20:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3537 Republic	PWM 08:14	EWR 09:56	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3405 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:51	EWR 12:52	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1777 United	PWM 06:05	EWR 07:43	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
YX 3551 Republic	PWM 15:43	EWR 17:31	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4600 GoJet	PWM 18:49	EWR 20:28	19%	4%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON