Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	PWM 11:47	MSP 13:49	7%	2%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:24 → IAD 07:28UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:43 → MSP 10:21UA 2604	5h 57m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	PWM 13:07 → BWI 14:39WN 146	1h 52m Baltimore	BWI 16:31 → MSP 18:06WN 1008	5h 59m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	8h 30m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 20:26 → MSP 21:16DL 2981	5h 24m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 32m	97%	86%
United Details →	PWM 15:37 → DEN 18:16UA 287	2h 38m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	9h 22m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → MSP 21:50DL 9979	8h 55m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON