Today: UA 2170 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet today UA 2170 PWM 06:06 → ORD 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2717 PWM 13:57 → ORD 15:43 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2170 United	PWM 06:06	ORD 08:03	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 3688 Republic	PWM 08:09	ORD 10:08	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:53	ORD 09:01	5%	2%	0.3%	89%
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 12:58	ORD 15:05	7%	2%	0.3%	92%
YX 4478 Republic	PWM 17:46	ORD 19:52	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:41	ORD 13:42	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:03	ORD 19:00	15%	3%	0.5%	76%
AA 2717 American	PWM 13:57	ORD 15:43	17%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON