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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2951 PWM 05:28 → PHL 07:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OH 5276 PWM 12:38 → PHL 14:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

AA 2951 American Flight history → PWM 05:28 PHL 07:16 5% 3% 0.7% 91%
OH 5302 PSA PWM 05:29 PHL 07:15 5% 4% 0.8% no record
OH 5295 PSA PWM 07:12 PHL 09:02 5% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 1536 American Flight history → PWM 07:30 PHL 09:27 6% 3% 0.6% 92%
OH 5276 PSA PWM 12:38 PHL 14:21 7% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 6124 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PWM 10:56 PHL 12:40 8% 1% 0.9% 92%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PWM 18:59 PHL 20:44 19% 9% 7.4% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON