Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day


OH 5211 PSA	RAP 13:08	CLT 18:31	15%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 13m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	5h 09m	95%	88%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Denver	DEN 09:59 → CLT 15:30UA 2231	8h 30m	98%	88%
United Details →	RAP 12:35 → DEN 14:14UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	8h 33m	98%	83%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 06m	98%	82%
American Details →	RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:35AA 2013	7h 17m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	52m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	5h 02m	86%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON