Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5576 RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5947 RAP 16:40 → DEN 18:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5576 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 05:00	DEN 06:37	5%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 5708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 10:21	DEN 11:58	6%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 5742 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 12:35	DEN 14:14	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1598 United	RAP 11:20	DEN 12:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1767 United Flight history →	RAP 07:00	DEN 08:21	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 5884 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 09:00	DEN 10:35	11%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 5671 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 17:45	DEN 19:08	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
UA 5947 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 16:40	DEN 18:24	14%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON