Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4277 RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3532 RAP 16:55 → DFW 20:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4277 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 06:30	DFW 10:00	4%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3768 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 10:18	DFW 13:42	7%	2%	0.8%	84%
MQ 3788 Envoy	RAP 12:49	DFW 16:18	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3532 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 16:55	DFW 20:20	9%	3%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON