Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 11:57, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4019 Envoy	RAP 11:57	PHX 13:42	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	6h 58m	98%	89%
United Details →	RAP 10:21 → DEN 11:58UA 5708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 14m	99%	88%
United Details →	RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:21UA 1767	3h 04m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	6h 25m	99%	87%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Denver	DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:02UA 1782	7h 02m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	6h 09m	95%	85%
United Details →	RAP 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 5884 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:35 → PHX 14:45UA 631	6h 45m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	6h 35m	95%	83%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:35 → PHX 12:16AA 359	6h 46m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON