Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 3223 at 11:26, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3223 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 11:26	BUR 13:31	10%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	93%
United Details →	RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363	4h 02m	98%	89%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	2h 47m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	99%	89%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → BUR 20:22UA 2001	6h 33m	99%	86%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 46m Denver	DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411	7h 44m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:26 → SEA 14:39AS 276	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 16:42 → BUR 18:54AS 530	5h 28m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON