tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history → RDM 05:30 PHX 07:57 5% 2% 0.7% 99%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history → RDM 14:40 PHX 17:06 10% 3% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 07m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 19:01 → PHX 21:04UA 1375 7h 15m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 05:16 → PDX 06:18AS 2043 · flown by Horizon 2h 42m Portland PDX 09:00 → PHX 11:46AS 1350 6h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350 2h 44m Denver DEN 19:26 → PHX 20:19UA 1507 7h 05m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Seattle SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698 8h 02m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:25 → SEA 14:33AS 276 2h 29m Seattle SEA 17:02 → PHX 19:44AS 746 6h 19m 100% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON