tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2262 United Flight history → RDM 13:49 SFO 15:32 14% 4% 0.7% 51%
AS 3360 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → RDM 18:42 SFO 21:04 14% 5% 1.2% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon 1h 56m Portland PDX 18:46 → SFO 20:36AS 1374 4h 35m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 58m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 25m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 26m 92% 77%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon 1h 04m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 3h 51m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → RDM 19:25 → SEA 20:48DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest 51m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 4h 34m 83% 75%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:25 → SEA 14:33AS 276 2h 03m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 23m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:05 → SAN 15:25AS 2415 · flown by Horizon 49m San Diego SAN 16:14 → SFO 17:49AS 2314 · flown by Horizon 4h 44m 58% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON