Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4004 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 05:05	SLC 07:48	2%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3727 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 12:15	SLC 15:04	4%	2%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	RDM 05:30 → PHX 07:57AA 3773 · flown by Envoy	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 10:51 → SLC 13:31AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	100%	92%
American Details →	RDM 14:40 → PHX 17:06AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 19:57 → SLC 22:39AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	92%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → SLC 22:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	90%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	3h 12m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40DL 4036 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 23m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	6h 39m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:25 → SEA 14:33AS 276	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 18:23 → SLC 21:18AS 669	6h 53m	100%	79%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 41m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 42m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	54m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	4h 20m	62%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON