Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1552 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 1552 RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4797 RDU 06:15 → ATL 08:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1552 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:10	ATL 06:28	2%	1%	0.2%	95%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:15	ATL 12:42	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1192 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:20	ATL 07:46	5%	1%	0.2%	95%
DL 1530 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:50	ATL 10:18	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2634 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:58	ATL 11:22	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:47	ATL 15:20	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:40	ATL 14:08	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	RDU 15:35	ATL 17:05	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:11	ATL 19:47	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:25	ATL 19:01	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2478 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:30	ATL 09:00	8%	1%	0.2%	89%
F9 1669 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:44	ATL 15:31	13%	6%	0.7%	67%
F9 4797 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 06:15	ATL 08:08	15%	4%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON