Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2670 RDU 07:11 → AUS 09:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3339 RDU 07:43 → AUS 09:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2670 Southwest	RDU 07:11	AUS 09:28	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3339 Southwest	RDU 07:43	AUS 09:52	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:00	AUS 09:11	11%	4%	1.9%	89%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 16:30	AUS 18:58	19%	8%	0.3%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	4h 35m	93%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON