Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4808 RDU 06:41 → BNA 07:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1034 RDU 19:23 → BNA 19:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4808 Southwest	RDU 06:41	BNA 07:22	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1020 Southwest	RDU 06:43	BNA 07:21	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 4762 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:56	BNA 10:43	4%	1%	0.5%	89%
WN 3342 Southwest	RDU 10:56	BNA 11:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 16:15	BNA 16:58	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1034 Southwest	RDU 19:23	BNA 19:50	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:05	BNA 08:51	17%	9%	1.8%	83%
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 18:15	BNA 19:19	23%	12%	1.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON