Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1054 RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1075 RDU 16:05 → BOS 18:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1054 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:00	BOS 09:02	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1022 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:23	BOS 11:25	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
B6 1484 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:00	BOS 07:59	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1033 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:55	BOS 14:59	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
B6 2084 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 11:32	BOS 13:36	11%	3%	0.6%	50%
B6 2184 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:15	BOS 16:15	11%	5%	0.6%	64%
DL 2393 Delta Flight history →	RDU 20:35	BOS 22:39	11%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 1075 Delta Flight history →	RDU 16:05	BOS 18:17	13%	4%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON