Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


DL 4911 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 14:55	CVG 16:41	20%	8%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022	2h 47m Boston	BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic	7h 22m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	2h 29m Boston	BOS 11:31 → CVG 13:49DL 464	6h 49m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	6h 15m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	5h 13m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	6h 08m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:25 → ATL 20:00DL 2600	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 26m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:39DL 703	7h 06m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 17:00 → EWR 18:49DL 5222 · flown by Endeavor	1h 26m Newark	EWR 20:15 → CVG 22:27DL 5065 · flown by Endeavor	5h 27m	73%	44%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 13:59 → CVG 16:11DL 4949 · flown by Endeavor	4h 42m	49%	30%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m New York	LGA 20:10 → CVG 22:35DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor	5h 30m	53%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON