Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3347 Southwest	RDU 12:10	DAL 13:55	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4696 Southwest	RDU 13:30	DAL 15:24	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	5h 11m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 05m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:40 → ATL 14:08DL 2052	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 14m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 00m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON