Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2985 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2985 RDU 06:04 → DCA 07:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4029 RDU 20:46 → DCA 21:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2985 American Flight history →	RDU 06:04	DCA 07:19	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2524 American	RDU 06:35	DCA 07:51	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5627 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:33	DCA 11:49	12%	4%	0.8%	92%
MQ 4053 Envoy	RDU 16:10	DCA 17:24	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 13:56	DCA 15:16	20%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 18:08	DCA 19:25	22%	6%	0.8%	48%
AA 4029 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDU 20:46	DCA 21:56	25%	5%	0.7%	48%
DL 5006 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:19	18%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 5198 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:47	DCA 21:20	51%	23%	8.1%	49%
DL 5310 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:42	DCA 17:07	53%	17%	2.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON