Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3348 RDU 06:28 → DEN 08:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3349 RDU 17:23 → DEN 19:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3348 Southwest	RDU 06:28	DEN 08:11	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 741 United	RDU 08:11	DEN 10:15	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2288 United Flight history →	RDU 16:22	DEN 18:25	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 3349 Southwest	RDU 17:23	DEN 19:04	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 12:40 → ATL 14:08DL 2052	52m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → DEN 16:11DL 493	5h 31m	88%	76%
American Details →	RDU 15:28 → CLT 16:25AA 2704	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 17:29 → DEN 18:57AA 3156	5h 29m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON