Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1217 RDU 07:47 → DFW 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2091 RDU 16:45 → DFW 18:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:47	DFW 10:00	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	RDU 11:50	DFW 13:47	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
F9 2343 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:36	DFW 15:45	10%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	RDU 14:16	DFW 16:15	10%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	RDU 16:45	DFW 18:43	13%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON