Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1388 RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1407 RDU 18:45 → DTW 20:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1388 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:33	DTW 07:16	3%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:54	DTW 11:36	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:50	DTW 14:35	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:45	DTW 20:36	7%	2%	0.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON