Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1525 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1525 RDU 06:00 → EWR 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2816 RDU 18:18 → EWR 20:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1525 United Flight history →	RDU 06:00	EWR 07:40	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1669 United	RDU 09:10	EWR 10:56	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3404 Republic	RDU 11:46	EWR 13:44	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1844 United	RDU 14:53	EWR 16:39	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 407 United	RDU 13:52	EWR 15:28	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2816 United	RDU 18:18	EWR 20:04	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 5120 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:05	EWR 08:59	11%	4%	3.2%	89%
DL 5273 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:35	EWR 13:23	27%	10%	3.0%	73%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:00	EWR 18:49	42%	21%	9.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON