Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1383 RDU 06:27 → IAH 08:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2407 RDU 16:58 → IAH 18:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1383 United Flight history →	RDU 06:27	IAH 08:37	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 2407 United Flight history →	RDU 16:58	IAH 18:49	11%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 6296 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 12:45	IAH 14:44	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON