Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 12:23, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 12:23	IND 14:14	9%	2%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952	5h 23m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	5h 21m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022	2h 34m Boston	BOS 13:59 → IND 16:46DL 5627 · flown by Republic	7h 23m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	6h 16m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979	6h 20m	99%	91%
American Details →	RDU 10:33 → DCA 11:49AA 5627 · flown by PSA	3h 28m Washington	DCA 15:17 → IND 17:21AA 4707 · flown by Republic	6h 48m	100%	90%
American Details →	RDU 06:04 → DCA 07:19AA 2985	2h 21m Washington	DCA 09:40 → IND 11:39AA 4701 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	99%	90%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → EWR 07:40UA 1525	2h 12m Newark	EWR 09:52 → IND 12:05UA 3669 · flown by Republic	6h 05m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON