tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1851 Southwest RDU 07:20 LAS 09:07 6% 1% 0.5% no record
DL 2027 Delta Flight history → RDU 07:05 LAS 08:54 8% 2% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 9h 26m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 50m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:21 → IAH 08:23UA 1383 3h 32m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:03 → LAS 11:21DL 748 8h 01m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 47m Dulles IAD 08:58 → LAS 10:48UA 1323 7h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 43m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 39m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 7h 20m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 13:47 → ATL 15:20DL 1488 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 18:34 → LAS 19:49DL 919 9h 02m 99% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RDU 07:02 → SEA 09:56AS 670 47m Seattle SEA 10:43 → LAS 13:07AS 212 9h 05m 62% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON