Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2955 RDU 07:09 → LAX 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2299 RDU 18:01 → LAX 20:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2955 American Flight history →	RDU 07:09	LAX 09:43	10%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 462 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:48	LAX 20:56	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 2299 American	RDU 18:01	LAX 20:12	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 14m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:54 → DTW 11:36DL 1427	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 41m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 38m	99%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON