Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2036 RDU 06:02 → LGA 07:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4560 RDU 20:20 → LGA 22:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2036 Delta	RDU 06:02	LGA 07:38	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:10	LGA 10:54	8%	2%	0.7%	68%
AA 1812 American	RDU 06:46	LGA 08:27	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2727 American	RDU 13:21	LGA 15:10	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2017 Delta	RDU 17:02	LGA 18:41	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:31	LGA 17:13	16%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 4560 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 20:20	LGA 22:14	16%	5%	0.7%	61%
DL 4689 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:43	17%	9%	4.2%	83%
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:30	LGA 10:12	32%	22%	2.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:59	LGA 21:58	35%	20%	7.2%	65%
DL 5184 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:01	LGA 16:44	40%	22%	7.9%	60%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON