tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RDU 08:00 MCI 09:42 15% 7% 2.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:40DL 1349 6h 40m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 24m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 5h 11m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 28m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:00 → MCI 10:35AA 1619 6h 34m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 51m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 5h 31m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 43m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:50 → DTW 14:35DL 2164 1h 19m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 5h 04m 96% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m New York LGA 19:55 → MCI 22:21DL 563 6h 16m 44% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON