Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3899 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3899 RDU 07:13 → MCO 09:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1039 RDU 17:21 → MCO 19:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3899 Southwest	RDU 07:13	MCO 09:09	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	5%	2%	2.1%	91%
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 09:58	MCO 12:01	10%	3%	1.6%	69%
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:01	MCO 14:50	10%	3%	2.2%	84%
F9 1039 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 17:21	MCO 19:23	24%	10%	4.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON