Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 395 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 395 RDU 06:15 → MIA 08:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3281 RDU 17:04 → MIA 19:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 395 American Flight history →	RDU 06:15	MIA 08:29	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 890 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:15	MIA 10:26	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 2321 American Flight history →	RDU 11:19	MIA 13:47	8%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 3281 American	RDU 17:04	MIA 19:09	30%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON