Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2538 RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2699 RDU 18:41 → MSP 20:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2538 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MSP 07:46	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2519 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:33	MSP 13:17	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2521 Delta Flight history →	RDU 14:46	MSP 16:41	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:41	MSP 20:27	12%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON