Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1482 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 RDU 06:01 → ORD 07:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2949 RDU 18:57 → ORD 20:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United	RDU 06:01	ORD 07:21	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:34	ORD 10:46	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	8%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 06:45	ORD 08:07	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
UA 2826 United	RDU 07:56	ORD 09:18	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
YX 4420 Republic	RDU 15:44	ORD 17:13	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:13	ORD 14:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2732 American	RDU 14:36	ORD 15:42	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 20:01	ORD 21:18	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 481 United	RDU 16:53	ORD 18:17	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 18:57	ORD 20:09	20%	5%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON