Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2781 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 05:50 → PHL 07:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OH 5348 RDU 17:26 → PHL 18:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 05:50	PHL 07:24	6%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 06:58	PHL 08:31	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 1759 American	RDU 10:36	PHL 12:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:31	PHL 12:11	13%	4%	0.7%	57%
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:37	PHL 14:08	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 11:59	PHL 13:36	15%	5%	0.8%	75%
OH 5348 PSA	RDU 17:26	PHL 18:59	18%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON