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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2601 American Flight history → RDU 06:36 PHX 08:09 13% 3% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 9h 46m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 7h 11m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:54 → DTW 11:36DL 1427 1h 11m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 6h 56m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 1h 10m New York JFK 08:29 → PHX 10:41AA 2099 8h 07m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 3h 41m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 9h 03m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:50 → DTW 14:35DL 2164 3h 51m Detroit DTW 18:26 → PHX 19:47DL 1135 9h 57m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:25AA 2781 3h 33m Philadelphia PHL 10:58 → PHX 13:03AA 478 10h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 51m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON