tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:33, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 354 Delta Flight history → RDU 06:38 SEA 09:25 8% 2% 0.7% 85%
AS 670 Alaska Flight history → RDU 07:02 SEA 09:56 16% 2% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 10h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 9h 51m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519 1h 58m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 8h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:41 → MSP 20:27DL 2699 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 8h 17m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43UA 1535 1h 25m Dulles IAD 13:08 → SEA 16:01UA 1824 8h 29m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:02 → LAS 08:59DL 2027 2h 10m Las Vegas LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 9h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444 7h 44m 97% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 13:53 → JFK 15:50DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor 1h 10m New York JFK 17:00 → SEA 20:36DL 740 9h 43m 73% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON