tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2623 United RDU 08:36 SFO 11:17 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1769 United Flight history → RDU 17:24 SFO 20:04 14% 3% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 2h 31m Dulles IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:31UA 1773 9h 31m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43UA 1535 3h 08m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 8h 10m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:47 → JFK 11:21DL 5294 · flown by Endeavor 3h 34m New York JFK 14:55 → SFO 18:24DL 679 11h 37m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 08:26 → SFO 11:01AA 2758 9h 00m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 3h 10m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 11h 20m 99% 87%
JetBlueDetails → RDU 06:50 → JFK 08:30B6 286 2h 00m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 18m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:48 → PHL 19:21AA 1441 50m Philadelphia PHL 20:11 → SFO 23:07AA 2506 8h 19m 68% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON