Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:33, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 580 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:10	SLC 09:42	6%	1%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 09:32 → MCI 11:17DL 5230 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m Kansas City	MCI 14:55 → SLC 16:32DL 2882	9h 00m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	7h 04m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 50m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 48m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 53m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:29 → CVG 17:04DL 4911 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Hebron	CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44DL 2149	8h 15m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:40 → ATL 14:08DL 2052	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 22m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON