tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4396 Southwest RIC 10:52 BNA 11:37 7% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1139 Southwest RIC 12:25 BNA 13:19 7% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 24m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 34m Chicago ORD 08:57 → BNA 10:48UA 1674 5h 48m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:24 → BNA 14:37DL 790 5h 18m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 47m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:17 → PHL 07:27AA 5815 · flown by Piedmont 1h 31m Philadelphia PHL 08:58 → BNA 10:12AA 1283 4h 55m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:57 → LGA 07:21DL 5822 · flown by Republic 3h 11m New York LGA 10:32 → BNA 12:01DL 5612 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 15:01 → ATL 16:50DL 3152 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:19 → BNA 20:31DL 3002 6h 30m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON