Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5697 RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 782 RIC 18:20 → BOS 19:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5697 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 06:04	BOS 08:00	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
B6 382 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 06:01	BOS 07:39	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 5622 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 11:36	BOS 13:28	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:59	BOS 21:00	9%	4%	0.7%	63%
B6 1282 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 11:46	BOS 13:32	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
B6 782 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 18:20	BOS 19:59	13%	6%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON