Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5452 RIC 12:13 → CLT 13:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1757 RIC 17:09 → CLT 18:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 12:13	CLT 13:31	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1063 American Flight history →	RIC 06:30	CLT 07:54	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 1775 American	RIC 10:18	CLT 11:35	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 16:19	CLT 17:43	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 3154 American	RIC 08:01	CLT 09:21	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	RIC 14:54	CLT 16:12	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1909 American Flight history →	RIC 19:05	CLT 20:28	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1757 American	RIC 17:09	CLT 18:30	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON