Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2493 United Flight history →	RIC 08:15	DEN 10:07	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1528 Southwest	RIC 15:25	DEN 17:09	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 20m	99%	91%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 11:13 → DEN 13:03UA 2857	9h 03m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706	8h 05m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:44 → MSP 08:44DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 21m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 39m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:01 → ATL 16:50DL 3152	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 42m	98%	87%
United Details →	RIC 07:38 → EWR 09:12UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	2h 43m Newark	EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999	8h 35m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON