Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4604 RIC 07:38 → EWR 09:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 3476 RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4604 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	RIC 07:38	EWR 09:11	7%	3%	1.2%	83%
UA 4493 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	RIC 09:58	EWR 11:38	9%	3%	1.2%	77%
G7 4467 GoJet	RIC 06:01	EWR 07:38	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
G7 4404 GoJet	RIC 06:00	EWR 07:20	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 14:38	EWR 16:08	11%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:30	EWR 20:00	16%	5%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON