tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:28, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YV 4042 Mesa RIC 06:08 IAH 08:27 11% 4% 0.6% no record
YV 4046 Mesa RIC 16:49 IAH 19:15 15% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 28m Chicago ORD 10:51 → IAH 13:46UA 2767 8h 46m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → RIC 07:39 → EWR 09:14UA 4604 · flown by GoJet 3h 22m Newark EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204 8h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:18 → IAH 13:31DL 2709 7h 36m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 29m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:16 → ORD 09:28UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 3h 12m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 8h 24m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:48 → IAH 16:02DL 1874 6h 43m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:45 → MSP 08:46DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 29m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 15:01 → ATL 16:51DL 3152 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 7h 23m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:13 → DFW 17:48AA 1915 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 41m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON