Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5822 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 5822 RIC 05:57 → LGA 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest YX 5784 RIC 19:46 → LGA 21:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 05:57	LGA 07:21	3%	3%	0.7%	79%
YX 4474 Republic	RIC 06:10	LGA 07:32	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 5799 Republic	RIC 09:51	LGA 11:16	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 11:30	LGA 12:58	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
YX 4429 Republic	RIC 13:32	LGA 15:05	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	RIC 17:23	LGA 18:53	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 5784 Republic	RIC 19:46	LGA 21:16	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	LGA 14:42	30%	12%	7.0%	70%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 17:59	LGA 19:27	52%	25%	15.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON